After the failure of the Kinshasa negotiations, what are the options for Egypt and Sudan to come?

These options are looming with the escalation of tension between those countries, and in light of Addis Ababa’s adherence to the second filling of the Renaissance Dam lake next July with 13.5 billion cubic meters of water, while Cairo and Khartoum warn that the filling without an agreement poses a serious threat to them.

It did not check Negotiations The last, any progress, did not lead to an agreement on launching negotiations, while it was renewed Ethiopia For its part, he rejected the Sudanese proposal (which was supported by Egypt) to form an international quartet led by the Congo, which heads the African Union, in order to mediate a solution to the crisis.

And charged Egyptian Foreign The Ethiopian side expressed “the absence of the political will to negotiate in good faith.”

For its part, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry said that Addis Ababa continued its obstinacy in the negotiations. Sudan expressed its hope that the Democratic Republic of the Congo would move towards bridging viewpoints.

In turn, Addis Ababa reaffirmed its intention to complete the second filling next July, and a statement issued by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expected the resumption of dialogue on the dam in the third week of April at the invitation of the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

While the three countries have not been able to reach a satisfactory and binding agreement over the previous rounds within years, and with the failure of mediation efforts, and at a time when Addis Ababa is preparing for the second filling, the talk is about alternative options for the two downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan).

Legal paths

On the legal level, Egypt and Sudan have several options, which are determined by the professor of public international law, member of the board of directors of the Egyptian Society for International Law, Musaed Abdel Ati, in statements to “Sky News Arabia”, referring to the ability of the two countries to go again to the Security Council under Chapter VI. This is the path that Egypt took last June, before the file went to the African Union.)

The aim is to inform the council of the results of the negotiation track and the Ethiopian position after the council referred the dispute to the African Union earlier, and the union (during the presidency of South Africa, and in the current period) did not succeed in reaching an agreement.

Here, the Security Council can issue – after reviewing the file – a recommendation to Ethiopia to postpone the filling, and to complete negotiations on the principles agreed upon between the countries and the three parties. Abdel-Aty points out that the Security Council, under Chapter VI, can issue a recommendation to refer the file to the International Court if there is international consensus and interest.

The second track, according to Abd al-Ati, is linked to going to the Security Council according to Chapter Seven, which is the path that he considers the most likely, and an urgent session of the Council is called to consider the conflict on the grounds that it has become one of the conflicts in which the determinants of a conflict threatening international peace and security are available and that would enter Africa In a state of conflict and conflict affecting stability within the region in general.

The two countries, Egypt and Sudan, ask the council to play the role legally and politically assigned to it under the Charter of the United Nations, as the arm of the United Nations Organization for the maintenance of international peace and security, and the Charter granted diplomatic and other repressive measures to impose security and peace.

The professor of international law continues: “In this case, the council has the right – if it agrees with the conflict’s threat to peace and security – to issue a direct decision to Ethiopia to stop the second filling next July, given the council’s decision that the matter threatens peace in the Horn of Africa, and therefore filling must be postponed. And return to direct negotiation on agreed upon bases between the parties to reach a comprehensive legal agreement that includes the rules for filling, operating and managing the dam in accordance with international laws and regulations and similar international cases regarding the construction of dams.

The third track after that is Egypt going to the General Assembly, which has the power to issue a recommendation – by a majority vote – that usually has literary value, in case the Security Council fails to fulfill its role. (This recommendation can be used as a guide to strengthen the position of the two countries in any other procedures and paths).

But in parallel, a professor of public international law, a member of the board of directors of the Egyptian Society for International Law, says that “decision-making within the Security Council is governed by political interests and the positions of major countries. Especially since there are interests and investments of some permanent members of the Security Council that have investments with Ethiopia. .

The researcher added, “I believe that Egypt also has influence over many influential and influential countries, and at the end of the day, Egypt and Sudan will put the world before its responsibilities, and at the same time there will be no complacency about Egypt’s right to water.” In this context, Abdel Aty talked about the size of Egypt’s influence at the regional and international levels, and the tools it possesses to influence in favor of supporting its just position.

This comes at a time when broad concerns are raised about the extent of damage to the two downstream countries in the event of the second filling without coordination between the three countries, whether due to the size of the deficit in the quantities of water on Egypt and Sudan, and the impact of this on drinking water stations and dams in particular in Sudan, and from Then, Egypt and Sudan in particular are racing against time to reach an agreement before next July.

Ethiopia says that any obstruction to the second filling of the dam would cause a loss of about one billion dollars, according to what the Ethiopian Minister of Irrigation announced in a statement, in which he spoke of his country’s commitment to exchange information about the filling process.

Open scenarios

For his part, the former Assistant Secretary-General of the Organization of African Unity, Ahmed Hajjaj, comments on the diplomatic and legal tracks available in front of both Cairo and Khartoum, noting that “all paths are open”, both legal and diplomatic, based on the agreements organizing international waters and cross-border rivers.

In statements to “Sky News Arabia”, he notes that after the failure of the last round of negotiations in Kinshasa regarding the Renaissance Dam, the diplomatic and legal tracks remain open until next July, the date for the second filling of the Renaissance Dam reservoir, after which it will be “for every recent incident” in A reference to alternative paths.

And about the extent of the bet on the international community in support of the Egyptian and Sudanese position, in the event of going to the Security Council and re-raising the file as a direct threat to international peace and security, Hajjaj points out that there are countries that understand the situation well, but at the same time he indicates the impact of what can be described as “Interests,” while there are other countries that “do not want the good of Egypt and Sudan,” and other countries are “loyal” to the two countries in their stance regarding the dam crisis.

All of these positions would influence in some way, and therefore he did not rule out the possibility that any of the permanent members of the Security Council could stand as an obstacle in the way of the file, and the matter depends on the extent of the “incentive” that can be provided to confirm their position.
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